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Glossary · O

What is Overfitting?

Tuning a strategy so closely to past data that it captures noise instead of a real pattern.

In context

Overfitting means a strategy has been tuned so closely to the details of past data that it has memorised the noise rather than learned a pattern. It fits the past perfectly and the future poorly.

From Chapter 12: Honest Research: Testing Ideas Without Fooling Yourself

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