US inflation (CPI): gold before and after
Before and after Release: Wed Aug 12, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-08-12 12:30 UTC)
Also in this release: CPI m/m, CPI y/y.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Consumer Price Index measures the inflation paid by US consumers; core CPI leaves out food and energy. Inflation data feeds straight into what markets price for the Fed's next rate decisions, and through Treasury yields and the dollar it reaches gold.
The consensus figures for this release were not archived (our calendar archive starts on Oct 4, 2026), so this page compares the result with the previous value only.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI m/m | n/a | 0.0% |
| CPI m/m | n/a | -0.4% |
| CPI y/y | n/a | 3.9% |
How gold reacted to past CPI releases
In the 15 past CPI releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $13.4 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $9.9 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $30.1, the largest $76.5. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 12 of 14 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 14, 2026 | +$68.2 | +$53.1 | $76.5 |
| Wed Jun 10, 2026 | +$21.3 | +$7.7 | $42.4 |
| Tue May 12, 2026 | -$4.2 | -$6.3 | $32.8 |
| Fri Apr 10, 2026 | +$18.8 | +$14.2 | $22.0 |
| Wed Mar 11, 2026 | -$11.0 | -$10.4 | $38.4 |
| Fri Feb 13, 2026 | +$25.8 | +$35.9 | $42.5 |
Where price sat before the release
At Wed Aug 12, 2026, 08:15 ET, gold futures traded at 4,468.1 GC (≈4,443 XAUUSD), above the previous day's value area (≈4,399 to ≈4,435 XAUUSD, 4,424.3 to 4,460.5 GC), above the daily VWAP (≈4,433 XAUUSD, 4,458.7 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈4,409 XAUUSD, 4,434.2 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Developing weekly VAH | 4,479.9 | ≈4,455 | +$11.8 |
| Above | Asia high | 4,475.7 | ≈4,450 | +$7.6 |
| Above | New York high | 4,472.6 | ≈4,447 | +$4.5 |
| Below | Developing daily POC | 4,467.6 | ≈4,442 | -$0.5 |
| Below | New York low | 4,465.5 | ≈4,440 | -$2.6 |
| Below | Prev day VAH | 4,460.5 | ≈4,435 | -$7.6 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, New York high at 4,472.6 GC (≈4,447 XAUUSD), $4.5 away; below, Developing daily POC at 4,467.6 GC (≈4,442 XAUUSD), $0.5 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past CPI releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $14.9.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -25.32 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI m/m | n/a | 0.2% | n/a | 0.0% |
| CPI m/m | n/a | 0.1% | n/a | -0.4% |
| CPI y/y | n/a | 3.5% | n/a | 3.9% |
Core CPI m/m: 0.2%, previous 0.0%.
CPI m/m: 0.1%, previous -0.4%.
CPI y/y: 3.5%, previous 3.9%.
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,487.7 GC (≈4,462 XAUUSD) just before 08:30 ET. After 1 min -$33.7; after 5 min -$3.0; after 15 min +$0.6; after 30 min +$10.1; after 60 min -$9.5. The first-hour range was $62.7: high 4,502.7 GC (≈4,477 XAUUSD) at +31 min, low 4,440.0 GC (≈4,415 XAUUSD) at +1 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (08:29 close) | 4,487.7 | ≈4,462 | |
| +1 min | 4,454.0 | ≈4,429 | -$33.7 |
| +5 min | 4,484.7 | ≈4,459 | -$3.0 |
| +15 min | 4,488.3 | ≈4,463 | +$0.6 |
| +30 min | 4,497.8 | ≈4,472 | +$10.1 |
| +60 min | 4,478.2 | ≈4,453 | -$9.5 |
| First-hour high (+31 min) | 4,502.7 | ≈4,477 | +$15.0 |
| First-hour low (+1 min) | 4,440.0 | ≈4,415 | -$47.7 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 2,903 contracts, 26.9 times the median minute of the half hour before (108). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): -75 over 1 min, +370 over 5 min, +401 over 15 min.
No order-book recording is available for this release, so big orders and icebergs are not shown.
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: Developing weekly POC (≈4,424 XAUUSD, 4,449.2 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $9.2 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; Prev day POC (≈4,425 XAUUSD, 4,450.0 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $10.0 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; London low (≈4,432 XAUUSD, 4,457.4 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $17.4 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; Daily VWAP (≈4,434 XAUUSD, 4,459.4 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $19.4 through it, then was back on the original side by +60. 8 more levels were reached (table).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing weekly POC | 4,449.2 | ≈4,424 | +1 min | swept | $9.2 |
| Prev day POC | 4,450.0 | ≈4,425 | +1 min | swept | $10.0 |
| London low | 4,457.4 | ≈4,432 | +1 min | swept | $17.4 |
| Daily VWAP | 4,459.4 | ≈4,434 | +1 min | swept | $19.4 |
| Prev day VAH | 4,460.5 | ≈4,435 | +1 min | swept | $20.5 |
| New York low | 4,463.5 | ≈4,438 | +1 min | swept | $23.5 |
| Developing daily POC | 4,467.6 | ≈4,442 | +1 min | swept | $27.6 |
| Asia high | 4,475.7 | ≈4,450 | +1 min | swept | $35.7 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 15 past CPI releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($3.0) was larger than 3 of 15 (median $13.4), and the first-hour range ($62.7) was larger than 13 of 15 (median $30.1).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,478.2 GC (≈4,453 XAUUSD), -$9.5 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (down $3.0) was fully retraced: price was back at the pre-release level at +10 min. At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -25.32 at the release (AK Command (latest)); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Release time: ALFRED release dates (backfilled page; dated releases are checked against FRED or the volume burst in our data); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow. Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.