PCE inflation (personal income and outlays) with GDP: gold before and after
Before and after Release: Wed Aug 26, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-08-26 12:30 UTC)
Also in this release: PCE Price Index m/m, Core PCE Price Index y/y, PCE Price Index y/y, Prelim GDP q/q.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The PCE price index is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with personal income and spending. Core PCE is the number Fed officials quote most, so a gap between the result and the consensus feeds into rate pricing, yields and the dollar.
The consensus figures for this release were not archived (our calendar archive starts on Oct 4, 2026), so this page compares the result with the previous value only.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index m/m | n/a | 0.1% |
| PCE Price Index m/m | n/a | -0.1% |
| Core PCE Price Index y/y | n/a | 3.3% |
| PCE Price Index y/y | n/a | 3.7% |
| Prelim GDP q/q | n/a | 1.5% |
How gold reacted to past PCE releases
In the 10 past PCE releases in our data since Jun 2025, gold futures moved a median of $4.0 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $8.7 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $22.9, the largest $56.6. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 6 of 10 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Jul 30, 2026 | -$3.6 | +$3.2 | $22.2 |
| Thu Jun 25, 2026 | +$11.2 | +$38.3 | $51.6 |
| Thu May 28, 2026 | +$7.6 | +$43.8 | $56.6 |
| Thu Apr 30, 2026 | -$3.5 | +$2.2 | $23.6 |
| Fri Feb 20, 2026 | -$4.7 | +$12.8 | $31.0 |
| Fri Dec 5, 2025 | +$1.7 | -$1.0 | $10.6 |
Where price sat before the release
At Wed Aug 26, 2026, 08:15 ET, gold futures traded at 4,681.2 GC (≈4,626 XAUUSD), inside the previous day's value area (≈4,617 to ≈4,655 XAUUSD, 4,672.1 to 4,710.2 GC), below the daily VWAP (≈4,640 XAUUSD, 4,695.5 GC) and below the weekly VWAP (≈4,646 XAUUSD, 4,700.9 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Prev day POC | 4,690.0 | ≈4,635 | +$8.8 |
| Above | New York high | 4,685.6 | ≈4,630 | +$4.4 |
| Above | Developing daily POC | 4,684.2 | ≈4,629 | +$3.0 |
| Below | New York low | 4,679.4 | ≈4,624 | -$1.8 |
| Below | Prev day VAL | 4,672.1 | ≈4,617 | -$9.1 |
| Below | London low | 4,668.8 | ≈4,613 | -$12.4 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Developing daily POC at 4,684.2 GC (≈4,629 XAUUSD), $3.0 away; below, New York low at 4,679.4 GC (≈4,624 XAUUSD), $1.8 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past PCE releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $6.8.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -55.35 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index m/m | n/a | 0.2% | n/a | 0.1% |
| PCE Price Index m/m | n/a | 0.2% | n/a | -0.1% |
| Core PCE Price Index y/y | n/a | 3.3% | n/a | 3.3% |
| PCE Price Index y/y | n/a | 3.7% | n/a | 3.7% |
| Prelim GDP q/q | n/a | 1.5% | n/a | 1.5% |
Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.2%, previous 0.1%.
PCE Price Index m/m: 0.2%, previous -0.1%.
Core PCE Price Index y/y: 3.3%, previous 3.3%.
PCE Price Index y/y: 3.7%, previous 3.7%.
Prelim GDP q/q: 1.5%, previous 1.5%.
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,686.6 GC (≈4,631 XAUUSD) just before 08:30 ET. After 1 min -$12.4; after 5 min -$7.8; after 15 min -$8.9; after 30 min -$17.1; after 60 min -$20.1. The first-hour range was $36.7: high 4,690.0 GC (≈4,634 XAUUSD) at +1 min, low 4,653.3 GC (≈4,597 XAUUSD) at +47 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (08:29 close) | 4,686.6 | ≈4,631 | |
| +1 min | 4,674.2 | ≈4,618 | -$12.4 |
| +5 min | 4,678.8 | ≈4,623 | -$7.8 |
| +15 min | 4,677.7 | ≈4,622 | -$8.9 |
| +30 min | 4,669.5 | ≈4,614 | -$17.1 |
| +60 min | 4,666.5 | ≈4,610 | -$20.1 |
| First-hour high (+1 min) | 4,690.0 | ≈4,634 | +$3.4 |
| First-hour low (+47 min) | 4,653.3 | ≈4,597 | -$33.3 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 833 contracts, 9.1 times the median minute of the half hour before (92). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): -87 over 1 min, -214 over 5 min, -173 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt)): 1 aggressive order of 60+ lots, 0 lots on the buying side and 142 on the selling side. Largest: a 142-lot aggressive seller at 08:34:53 ET at 4,678.3 GC (≈4,622 XAUUSD). No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
| Time ET | Order | Lots | GC | XAUUSD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:34:53 | Aggressive seller | 142 | 4,678.3 | ≈4,622 |
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: Prev day VAL (≈4,616 XAUUSD, 4,672.1 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $18.8 through it and was still beyond it at +60; New York low (≈4,623 XAUUSD, 4,679.4 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $26.1 through it and was still beyond it at +60; Developing weekly VAL + Asia low (≈4,625 XAUUSD, 4,681.0 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $27.7 through it and was still beyond it at +60; Developing daily POC (≈4,628 XAUUSD, 4,684.2 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $30.9 through it and was still beyond it at +60. 4 more levels were reached (table).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev day VAL | 4,672.1 | ≈4,616 | +1 min | broken | $18.8 |
| New York low | 4,679.4 | ≈4,623 | +1 min | broken | $26.1 |
| Developing weekly VAL + Asia low | 4,681.0 | ≈4,625 | +1 min | broken | $27.7 |
| Developing daily POC | 4,684.2 | ≈4,628 | +1 min | broken | $30.9 |
| New York high | 4,686.6 | ≈4,631 | +1 min | broken | $33.3 |
| Prev day POC | 4,690.0 | ≈4,634 | +1 min | held | |
| London low | 4,668.8 | ≈4,613 | +2 min | broken | $15.5 |
| Prev day low | 4,659.5 | ≈4,604 | +47 min | swept | $6.2 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 10 past PCE releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($7.8) was larger than 9 of 10 (median $4.0), and the first-hour range ($36.7) was larger than 8 of 10 (median $22.9).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,666.5 GC (≈4,610 XAUUSD), -$20.1 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (down $7.8) was not retraced (37% given back at most). At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -56.00 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Release time: ALFRED release dates (backfilled page; dated releases are checked against FRED or the volume burst in our data); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.