ISM manufacturing PMI with JOLTS: gold before and after
Before and after Release: Tue Sep 1, 2026, 10:00 ET (2026-09-01 14:00 UTC)
Also in this release: JOLTS Job Openings.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Institute for Supply Management survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing. A reading above 50 means expansion and below 50 contraction; the prices-paid part is an early read on inflation.
The consensus figures for this release were not archived (our calendar archive starts on Oct 4, 2026), so this page compares the result with the previous value only.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | n/a | n/a |
| JOLTS Job Openings | n/a | 7.36M |
How gold reacted to past ISM manufacturing releases
In the 9 past ISM manufacturing releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $2.5 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $4.6 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $17.5, the largest $45.5. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 7 of 9 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri May 1, 2026 | +$9.1 | +$6.1 | $37.2 |
| Wed Apr 1, 2026 | +$6.4 | +$23.0 | $45.5 |
| Mon Nov 3, 2025 | +$4.7 | -$14.8 | $28.7 |
| Tue Sep 2, 2025 | +$2.5 | +$22.7 | $30.0 |
| Fri Aug 1, 2025 | +$2.5 | +$3.9 | $14.0 |
| Tue Jul 1, 2025 | +$0.7 | -$6.0 | $11.3 |
Where price sat before the release
At Tue Sep 1, 2026, 09:45 ET, gold futures traded at 4,409.8 GC (≈4,362 XAUUSD), below the previous day's value area (≈4,423 to ≈4,452 XAUUSD, 4,471.1 to 4,499.6 GC), below the daily VWAP (≈4,377 XAUUSD, 4,424.3 GC) and below the weekly VWAP (≈4,435 XAUUSD, 4,482.7 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Prev day low | 4,445.6 | ≈4,398 | +$35.8 |
| Above | Daily VWAP + Monthly VWAP | 4,424.3 | ≈4,377 | +$14.5 |
| Above | New York high | 4,410.6 | ≈4,363 | +$0.8 |
| Below | Developing monthly VAH | 4,407.8 | ≈4,360 | -$2.0 |
| Below | Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC | 4,402.4 | ≈4,355 | -$7.4 |
| Below | Developing monthly VAL | 4,384.5 | ≈4,337 | -$25.3 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, New York high at 4,410.6 GC (≈4,363 XAUUSD), $0.8 away; below, Developing monthly VAH at 4,407.8 GC (≈4,360 XAUUSD), $2.0 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past ISM manufacturing releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $8.8.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -47.68 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | n/a | see release | n/a | n/a |
| JOLTS Job Openings | n/a | 7.27M | n/a | 7.36M |
ISM Manufacturing PMI: actual not in our free data sources; see the release.
JOLTS Job Openings: 7.27M, previous 7.36M (revised to 7.18M in this release).
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,413.9 GC (≈4,366 XAUUSD) just before 10:00 ET. After 1 min -$4.0; after 5 min -$10.6; after 15 min +$4.8; after 30 min +$1.7; after 60 min -$5.1. The first-hour range was $22.8: high 4,424.3 GC (≈4,376 XAUUSD) at +25 min, low 4,401.5 GC (≈4,353 XAUUSD) at +4 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (09:59 close) | 4,413.9 | ≈4,366 | |
| +1 min | 4,409.9 | ≈4,362 | -$4.0 |
| +5 min | 4,403.3 | ≈4,355 | -$10.6 |
| +15 min | 4,418.7 | ≈4,371 | +$4.8 |
| +30 min | 4,415.6 | ≈4,367 | +$1.7 |
| +60 min | 4,408.8 | ≈4,361 | -$5.1 |
| First-hour high (+25 min) | 4,424.3 | ≈4,376 | +$10.4 |
| First-hour low (+4 min) | 4,401.5 | ≈4,353 | -$12.4 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 831 contracts, 2.8 times the median minute of the half hour before (294). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): +73 over 1 min, -142 over 5 min, +82 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt)): no single aggressive order of 60+ lots. No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: Developing monthly VAH (≈4,363 XAUUSD, 4,411.3 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $9.8 through it and was still beyond it at +60; New York high (≈4,368 XAUUSD, 4,415.9 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $8.4 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC (≈4,354 XAUUSD, 4,402.4 GC) reached at +4 min and held (no more than $1 through); Daily VWAP + Monthly VWAP (≈4,372 XAUUSD, 4,420.6 GC) swept at +17 min: price went $3.7 through it, then was back on the original side by +60.
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing monthly VAH | 4,411.3 | ≈4,363 | +1 min | broken | $9.8 |
| New York high | 4,415.9 | ≈4,368 | +1 min | swept | $8.4 |
| Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC | 4,402.4 | ≈4,354 | +4 min | held | |
| Daily VWAP + Monthly VWAP | 4,420.6 | ≈4,372 | +17 min | swept | $3.7 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 9 past ISM manufacturing releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($10.6) was larger than 9 of 9 (median $2.5), and the first-hour range ($22.8) was larger than 5 of 9 (median $17.5).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,408.8 GC (≈4,361 XAUUSD), -$5.1 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (down $10.6) was fully retraced: price was back at the pre-release level at +9 min. At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level.
100 minutes missing from our NinjaTrader recording around this release were rebuilt from the exchange trades in our Bookmap capture.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -48.11 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Release time: ALFRED release dates, date rule (backfilled page; dated releases are checked against FRED or the volume burst in our data); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.