US producer prices (PPI) with jobless claims: gold before and after
Before and after Release: Thu Sep 10, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-09-10 12:30 UTC)
Also in this release: PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Producer Price Index measures prices received by US producers, an early read on inflation in the pipeline. It reaches gold mostly through rate pricing and often comes out a day before or after CPI.
The consensus figures for this release were not archived (our calendar archive starts on Oct 4, 2026), so this page compares the result with the previous value only.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core PPI m/m | n/a | 0.2% |
| PPI m/m | n/a | 0.0% |
| Unemployment Claims | n/a | 206K |
How gold reacted to past PPI releases
In the 13 past PPI releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $3.0 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $5.5 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $18.7, the largest $35.6. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 5 of 12 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Aug 13, 2026 | +$0.6 | -$6.1 | $22.9 |
| Wed Jul 15, 2026 | +$15.4 | +$16.8 | $35.6 |
| Thu Jun 11, 2026 | -$6.7 | +$6.9 | $28.9 |
| Wed May 13, 2026 | -$5.3 | +$0.9 | $20.0 |
| Tue Apr 14, 2026 | +$6.7 | +$14.9 | $31.6 |
| Wed Jan 14, 2026 | -$2.3 | +$2.6 | $15.4 |
Where price sat before the release
At Thu Sep 10, 2026, 08:15 ET, gold futures traded at 4,417.4 GC (≈4,375 XAUUSD), below the previous day's value area (≈4,396 to ≈4,423 XAUUSD, 4,437.8 to 4,465.6 GC), below the daily VWAP (≈4,404 XAUUSD, 4,446.7 GC) and below the weekly VWAP (≈4,404 XAUUSD, 4,446.3 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Developing weekly VAL | 4,432.0 | ≈4,390 | +$14.6 |
| Above | New York high | 4,419.9 | ≈4,378 | +$2.5 |
| Above | Prev week VAL | 4,419.3 | ≈4,377 | +$1.9 |
| Below | London low | 4,415.1 | ≈4,373 | -$2.3 |
| Below | New York low | 4,411.7 | ≈4,369 | -$5.7 |
| Below | Prev day low | 4,392.4 | ≈4,350 | -$25.0 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Prev week VAL at 4,419.3 GC (≈4,377 XAUUSD), $1.9 away; below, London low at 4,415.1 GC (≈4,373 XAUUSD), $2.3 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past PPI releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $8.8.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -42.24 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core PPI m/m | n/a | 0.2% | n/a | 0.2% |
| PPI m/m | n/a | 0.4% | n/a | 0.0% |
| Unemployment Claims | n/a | 206K | n/a | 206K |
Core PPI m/m: 0.2%, previous 0.2% (revised to 0.3% in this release).
PPI m/m: 0.4%, previous 0.0% (revised to 0.1% in this release).
Unemployment Claims: 206K, previous 206K (revised to 207K in this release).
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,406.3 GC (≈4,363 XAUUSD) just before 08:30 ET. After 1 min -$4.3; after 5 min -$22.3; after 15 min -$23.8; after 30 min -$24.5; after 60 min -$6.7. The first-hour range was $50.0: high 4,415.4 GC (≈4,372 XAUUSD) at +1 min, low 4,365.4 GC (≈4,322 XAUUSD) at +10 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (08:29 close) | 4,406.3 | ≈4,363 | |
| +1 min | 4,402.0 | ≈4,359 | -$4.3 |
| +5 min | 4,384.0 | ≈4,341 | -$22.3 |
| +15 min | 4,382.5 | ≈4,340 | -$23.8 |
| +30 min | 4,381.8 | ≈4,339 | -$24.5 |
| +60 min | 4,399.6 | ≈4,357 | -$6.7 |
| First-hour high (+1 min) | 4,415.4 | ≈4,372 | +$9.1 |
| First-hour low (+10 min) | 4,365.4 | ≈4,322 | -$40.9 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 916 contracts, 3.8 times the median minute of the half hour before (240). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): -50 over 1 min, -521 over 5 min, -356 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt)): 9 aggressive orders of 60+ lots, 152 lots on the buying side and 582 on the selling side. Largest: a 100-lot aggressive seller at 08:36:15 ET from 4,383.5 to 4,381.1 GC (≈4,341 to ≈4,338 XAUUSD). No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
| Time ET | Order | Lots | GC | XAUUSD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:36:15 | Aggressive seller | 100 | 4,383.5 | ≈4,341 |
| 08:36:26 | Aggressive seller | 100 | 4,384.3 | ≈4,341 |
| 08:34:39 | Aggressive seller | 84 | 4,382.6 | ≈4,340 |
| 08:34:40 | Aggressive buyer | 84 | 4,382.2 | ≈4,339 |
| 08:34:34 | Aggressive seller | 80 | 4,385.0 | ≈4,342 |
| 08:31:06 | Aggressive seller | 79 | 4,400.0 | ≈4,357 |
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: New York low (≈4,361 XAUUSD, 4,403.6 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $38.2 through it and was still beyond it at +60; London low (≈4,372 XAUUSD, 4,415.1 GC) reached at +1 min and held (no more than $1 through); Developing monthly VAL (≈4,348 XAUUSD, 4,390.9 GC) swept at +3 min: price went $25.5 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; Prev day low (≈4,349 XAUUSD, 4,392.4 GC) swept at +3 min: price went $27.0 through it, then was back on the original side by +60.
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York low | 4,403.6 | ≈4,361 | +1 min | broken | $38.2 |
| London low | 4,415.1 | ≈4,372 | +1 min | held | |
| Developing monthly VAL | 4,390.9 | ≈4,348 | +3 min | swept | $25.5 |
| Prev day low | 4,392.4 | ≈4,349 | +3 min | swept | $27.0 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 13 past PPI releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($22.3) was larger than 13 of 13 (median $3.0), and the first-hour range ($50.0) was larger than 13 of 13 (median $18.7).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,399.6 GC (≈4,357 XAUUSD), -$6.7 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (down $22.3) was more than half retraced (71% given back at most). At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -42.98 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Release time: ALFRED release dates (backfilled page; dated releases are checked against FRED or the volume burst in our data); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.