Fed rate decision (FOMC): gold before and after
Before and after Release: Wed Sep 16, 2026, 14:00 ET (2026-09-16 18:00 UTC)
Also in this release: FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Federal Open Market Committee sets the federal funds rate eight times a year. The statement comes out at 14:00 ET and the Fed Chair's press conference starts at 14:30 ET. Interest rates are the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, so the decision, the wording and the press conference can each move gold within seconds.
The consensus figures for this release were not archived (our calendar archive starts on Oct 4, 2026), so this page compares the result with the previous value only.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate | n/a | 3.75% |
How gold reacted to past FOMC decision releases
In the 11 past FOMC decision releases in our data since May 2025, gold futures moved a median of $4.9 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $5.1 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $48.3, the largest $111.3. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 7 of 11 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Jul 29, 2026 | +$25.0 | +$64.3 | $67.7 |
| Wed Jun 17, 2026 | -$64.5 | -$95.9 | $111.3 |
| Wed Apr 29, 2026 | -$6.7 | -$9.1 | $35.0 |
| Wed Mar 18, 2026 | -$1.4 | -$37.8 | $48.3 |
| Wed Jan 28, 2026 | -$7.1 | +$41.3 | $63.1 |
| Wed Dec 10, 2025 | +$12.7 | +$23.8 | $41.2 |
Where price sat before the release
At Wed Sep 16, 2026, 13:45 ET, gold futures traded at 4,385.3 GC (≈4,344 XAUUSD), above the previous day's value area (≈4,277 to ≈4,298 XAUUSD, 4,318.2 to 4,339.2 GC), above the daily VWAP (≈4,343 XAUUSD, 4,384.6 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈4,307 XAUUSD, 4,347.7 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Prev week VAL + New York high | 4,405.3 | ≈4,364 | +$20.0 |
| Above | London high | 4,394.8 | ≈4,354 | +$9.5 |
| Above | Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC | 4,388.3 | ≈4,347 | +$3.0 |
| Below | Daily VWAP | 4,384.6 | ≈4,343 | -$0.7 |
| Below | Developing weekly VAH | 4,372.7 | ≈4,332 | -$12.6 |
| Below | Prev month VAL + New York low | 4,364.7 | ≈4,324 | -$20.6 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC at 4,388.3 GC (≈4,347 XAUUSD), $3.0 away; below, Daily VWAP at 4,384.6 GC (≈4,343 XAUUSD), $0.7 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past FOMC decision releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $11.9.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -41.14 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate | n/a | 4.00% | n/a | 3.75% |
The Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 bp, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,399.0 GC (≈4,359 XAUUSD) just before 14:00 ET. After 1 min -$17.4; after 5 min -$32.5; after 15 min -$47.0; after 30 min -$35.0; after 60 min -$98.3. The first-hour range was $115.8: high 4,412.0 GC (≈4,372 XAUUSD) at +1 min, low 4,296.2 GC (≈4,256 XAUUSD) at +58 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (13:59 close) | 4,399.0 | ≈4,359 | |
| +1 min | 4,381.6 | ≈4,341 | -$17.4 |
| +5 min | 4,366.5 | ≈4,326 | -$32.5 |
| +15 min | 4,352.0 | ≈4,312 | -$47.0 |
| +30 min | 4,364.0 | ≈4,324 | -$35.0 |
| +60 min | 4,300.7 | ≈4,260 | -$98.3 |
| First-hour high (+1 min) | 4,412.0 | ≈4,372 | +$13.0 |
| First-hour low (+58 min) | 4,296.2 | ≈4,256 | -$102.8 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 2,517 contracts, 23.4 times the median minute of the half hour before (108). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): +23 over 1 min, -29 over 5 min, -716 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt)): 4 aggressive orders of 60+ lots, 99 lots on the buying side and 270 on the selling side. Largest: a 100-lot aggressive seller at 14:01:16 ET from 4,369.8 to 4,364.4 GC (≈4,329 to ≈4,324 XAUUSD). No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
| Time ET | Order | Lots | GC | XAUUSD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:01:16 | Aggressive seller | 100 | 4,369.8 | ≈4,329 |
| 14:11:50 | Aggressive seller | 100 | 4,360.8 | ≈4,320 |
| 14:10:33 | Aggressive buyer | 99 | 4,368.1 | ≈4,328 |
| 14:01:36 | Aggressive seller | 70 | 4,365.9 | ≈4,325 |
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: Daily VWAP (≈4,344 XAUUSD, 4,384.8 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $88.6 through it and was still beyond it at +60; Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC (≈4,348 XAUUSD, 4,388.5 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $92.3 through it and was still beyond it at +60; London high (≈4,354 XAUUSD, 4,394.8 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $98.6 through it and was still beyond it at +60; Prev week VAL (≈4,365 XAUUSD, 4,405.3 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $6.7 through it, then was back on the original side by +60. 12 more levels were reached (table).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily VWAP | 4,384.8 | ≈4,344 | +1 min | broken | $88.6 |
| Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC | 4,388.5 | ≈4,348 | +1 min | broken | $92.3 |
| London high | 4,394.8 | ≈4,354 | +1 min | broken | $98.6 |
| Prev week VAL | 4,405.3 | ≈4,365 | +1 min | swept | $6.7 |
| Monthly VWAP | 4,409.8 | ≈4,369 | +1 min | swept | $2.2 |
| London low | 4,362.6 | ≈4,322 | +2 min | broken | $66.4 |
| Prev month VAL + New York low | 4,364.7 | ≈4,324 | +2 min | broken | $68.5 |
| Developing weekly VAH | 4,373.3 | ≈4,333 | +2 min | broken | $77.1 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 11 past FOMC decision releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($32.5) was larger than 10 of 11 (median $4.9), and the first-hour range ($115.8) was larger than 11 of 11 (median $48.3).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,300.7 GC (≈4,260 XAUUSD), -$98.3 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (down $32.5) was more than half retraced (65% given back at most). At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level. The press conference started at 14:30 ET, inside this hour.
44 minutes missing from our NinjaTrader recording around this release were rebuilt from the exchange trades in our Bookmap capture.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -40.45 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Release time: Fed calendar (backfilled page; dated releases are checked against FRED or the volume burst in our data); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.