US retail sales: gold before and after
Before and after Release: Wed Sep 16, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-09-16 12:30 UTC)
Also in this release: Core Retail Sales m/m.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
Retail sales measure what US consumers spend in stores and online each month, a large share of the economy. Spending data changes the growth picture and rate pricing, which reaches gold through yields and the dollar.
The consensus figures for this release were not archived (our calendar archive starts on Oct 4, 2026), so this page compares the result with the previous value only.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales m/m | n/a | -0.6% |
| Core Retail Sales m/m | n/a | -0.3% |
How gold reacted to past Retail sales releases
In the 12 past retail sales releases in our data since May 2025, gold futures moved a median of $3.0 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $4.8 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $18.9, the largest $58.0. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 8 of 11 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Aug 14, 2026 | +$1.7 | +$4.9 | $16.7 |
| Tue Apr 21, 2026 | +$6.3 | -$6.6 | $32.0 |
| Wed Apr 1, 2026 | +$9.7 | +$0.5 | $38.7 |
| Fri Mar 6, 2026 | +$40.6 | +$19.5 | $58.0 |
| Wed Jan 14, 2026 | -$2.3 | +$2.6 | $15.4 |
| Tue Dec 16, 2025 | +$6.3 | +$26.5 | $33.9 |
Where price sat before the release
At Wed Sep 16, 2026, 08:15 ET, gold futures traded at 4,384.5 GC (≈4,344 XAUUSD), above the previous day's value area (≈4,277 to ≈4,298 XAUUSD, 4,318.2 to 4,339.2 GC), above the daily VWAP (≈4,339 XAUUSD, 4,380.4 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈4,298 XAUUSD, 4,339.2 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | London high | 4,394.8 | ≈4,354 | +$10.3 |
| Above | New York high | 4,389.3 | ≈4,348 | +$4.8 |
| Above | Developing daily POC | 4,388.8 | ≈4,348 | +$4.3 |
| Below | New York low | 4,381.6 | ≈4,341 | -$2.9 |
| Below | Daily VWAP | 4,380.4 | ≈4,339 | -$4.1 |
| Below | Prev month VAL | 4,364.7 | ≈4,324 | -$19.8 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Developing daily POC at 4,388.8 GC (≈4,348 XAUUSD), $4.3 away; below, New York low at 4,381.6 GC (≈4,341 XAUUSD), $2.9 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past retail sales releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $7.5.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -40.98 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales m/m | n/a | 1.2% | n/a | -0.6% |
| Core Retail Sales m/m | n/a | 1.4% | n/a | -0.3% |
Retail Sales m/m: 1.2%, previous -0.6% (revised to -0.5% in this release).
Core Retail Sales m/m: 1.4%, previous -0.3% (revised to -0.2% in this release).
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,381.0 GC (≈4,339 XAUUSD) just before 08:30 ET. After 1 min +$1.5; after 5 min +$1.1; after 15 min +$3.6; after 30 min +$7.4; after 60 min +$12.2. The first-hour range was $27.9: high 4,402.9 GC (≈4,361 XAUUSD) at +46 min, low 4,375.0 GC (≈4,333 XAUUSD) at +1 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (08:29 close) | 4,381.0 | ≈4,339 | |
| +1 min | 4,382.5 | ≈4,341 | +$1.5 |
| +5 min | 4,382.1 | ≈4,340 | +$1.1 |
| +15 min | 4,384.6 | ≈4,343 | +$3.6 |
| +30 min | 4,388.4 | ≈4,347 | +$7.4 |
| +60 min | 4,393.2 | ≈4,351 | +$12.2 |
| First-hour high (+46 min) | 4,402.9 | ≈4,361 | +$21.9 |
| First-hour low (+1 min) | 4,375.0 | ≈4,333 | -$6.0 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 504 contracts, 3.2 times the median minute of the half hour before (156). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): -46 over 1 min, -85 over 5 min, -114 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt)): no single aggressive order of 60+ lots. No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: New York low (≈4,337 XAUUSD, 4,378.6 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $3.6 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; Daily VWAP (≈4,339 XAUUSD, 4,380.5 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $5.5 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; Developing daily POC (≈4,347 XAUUSD, 4,388.8 GC) broken at +21 min: price went $14.1 through it and was still beyond it at +60; New York high (≈4,348 XAUUSD, 4,389.3 GC) broken at +21 min: price went $13.6 through it and was still beyond it at +60. 1 more levels were reached (table).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York low | 4,378.6 | ≈4,337 | +1 min | swept | $3.6 |
| Daily VWAP | 4,380.5 | ≈4,339 | +1 min | swept | $5.5 |
| Developing daily POC | 4,388.8 | ≈4,347 | +21 min | broken | $14.1 |
| New York high | 4,389.3 | ≈4,348 | +21 min | broken | $13.6 |
| London high | 4,394.8 | ≈4,353 | +44 min | swept | $8.1 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 12 past retail sales releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($1.1) was larger than 2 of 12 (median $3.0), and the first-hour range ($27.9) was larger than 8 of 12 (median $18.9).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,393.2 GC (≈4,351 XAUUSD), +$12.2 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (up $1.1) was fully retraced: price was back at the pre-release level at +9 min. At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -41.71 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Release time: ALFRED release dates (backfilled page; dated releases are checked against FRED or the volume burst in our data); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: Bookmap trade capture (exchange data; icebergs not rebuilt). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.