PCE inflation (personal income and outlays) with GDP: gold before and after
Before and after Release: Wed Sep 30, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-09-30 12:30 UTC)
Also in this release: PCE Price Index m/m, Core PCE Price Index y/y, PCE Price Index y/y, Final GDP q/q.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The PCE price index is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with personal income and spending. Core PCE is the number Fed officials quote most, so a gap between the result and the consensus feeds into rate pricing, yields and the dollar.
The consensus figures for this release were not archived (our calendar archive starts on Oct 4, 2026), so this page compares the result with the previous value only.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index m/m | n/a | 0.2% |
| PCE Price Index m/m | n/a | 0.2% |
| Core PCE Price Index y/y | n/a | 3.3% |
| PCE Price Index y/y | n/a | 3.7% |
| Final GDP q/q | n/a | 1.5% |
How gold reacted to past PCE releases
In the 11 past PCE releases in our data since Jun 2025, gold futures moved a median of $4.4 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $8.9 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $23.6, the largest $56.6. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 7 of 11 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Aug 26, 2026 | -$7.8 | -$20.1 | $36.7 |
| Thu Jul 30, 2026 | -$3.6 | +$3.2 | $22.2 |
| Thu Jun 25, 2026 | +$11.2 | +$38.3 | $51.6 |
| Thu May 28, 2026 | +$7.6 | +$43.8 | $56.6 |
| Thu Apr 30, 2026 | -$3.5 | +$2.2 | $23.6 |
| Fri Feb 20, 2026 | -$4.7 | +$12.8 | $31.0 |
Where price sat before the release
At Wed Sep 30, 2026, 08:15 ET, gold futures traded at 4,225.8 GC (≈4,195 XAUUSD), above the previous day's value area (≈4,142 to ≈4,175 XAUUSD, 4,172.4 to 4,205.1 GC), above the daily VWAP (≈4,186 XAUUSD, 4,216.2 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈4,159 XAUUSD, 4,189.0 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | London high | 4,234.0 | ≈4,204 | +$8.2 |
| Above | Asia high | 4,227.0 | ≈4,197 | +$1.2 |
| Above | New York high | 4,226.5 | ≈4,196 | +$0.7 |
| Below | Prev day high | 4,218.1 | ≈4,188 | -$7.7 |
| Below | New York low | 4,216.6 | ≈4,186 | -$9.2 |
| Below | Daily VWAP | 4,216.2 | ≈4,186 | -$9.6 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, New York high at 4,226.5 GC (≈4,196 XAUUSD), $0.7 away; below, Prev day high at 4,218.1 GC (≈4,188 XAUUSD), $7.7 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past PCE releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $7.5.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -30.40 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index m/m | n/a | 0.2% | n/a | 0.2% |
| PCE Price Index m/m | n/a | 0.3% | n/a | 0.2% |
| Core PCE Price Index y/y | n/a | 3.0% | n/a | 3.3% |
| PCE Price Index y/y | n/a | 3.4% | n/a | 3.7% |
| Final GDP q/q | n/a | 2.2% | n/a | 1.5% |
Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.2%, previous 0.2% (revised to 0.1% in this release).
PCE Price Index m/m: 0.3%, previous 0.2% (revised to 0.1% in this release).
Core PCE Price Index y/y: 3.0%, previous 3.3% (revised to 3.0% in this release).
PCE Price Index y/y: 3.4%, previous 3.7% (revised to 3.4% in this release).
Final GDP q/q: 2.2%, previous 1.5%.
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,226.0 GC (≈4,196 XAUUSD) just before 08:30 ET. After 1 min +$10.7; after 5 min +$20.7; after 15 min +$20.4; after 30 min +$14.2; after 60 min -$1.1. The first-hour range was $28.5: high 4,251.1 GC (≈4,221 XAUUSD) at +6 min, low 4,222.6 GC (≈4,192 XAUUSD) at +54 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (08:29 close) | 4,226.0 | ≈4,196 | |
| +1 min | 4,236.7 | ≈4,206 | +$10.7 |
| +5 min | 4,246.7 | ≈4,216 | +$20.7 |
| +15 min | 4,246.4 | ≈4,216 | +$20.4 |
| +30 min | 4,240.2 | ≈4,210 | +$14.2 |
| +60 min | 4,224.9 | ≈4,194 | -$1.1 |
| First-hour high (+6 min) | 4,251.1 | ≈4,221 | +$25.1 |
| First-hour low (+54 min) | 4,222.6 | ≈4,192 | -$3.4 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 1,745 contracts, 15.9 times the median minute of the half hour before (110). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): +217 over 1 min, +1,190 over 5 min, +1,065 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (AK FlowBook recording (NinjaTrader, exchange data)): 7 aggressive orders of 60+ lots, 897 lots on the buying side and 64 on the selling side. Largest: a 315-lot aggressive buyer at 08:31:08 ET from 4,240.2 to 4,240.8 GC (≈4,210 XAUUSD). No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
| Time ET | Order | Lots | GC | XAUUSD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:31:08 | Aggressive buyer | 315 | 4,240.2 | ≈4,210 |
| 08:31:40 | Aggressive buyer | 179 | 4,244.7 | ≈4,214 |
| 08:31:06 | Aggressive buyer | 170 | 4,239.4 | ≈4,209 |
| 08:30:20 | Aggressive buyer | 87 | 4,237.9 | ≈4,208 |
| 08:32:06 | Aggressive buyer | 79 | 4,249.1 | ≈4,219 |
| 08:32:19 | Aggressive buyer | 67 | 4,247.1 | ≈4,217 |
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: New York high (≈4,196 XAUUSD, 4,226.5 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $24.6 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; Asia high (≈4,197 XAUUSD, 4,227.0 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $24.1 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; London high (≈4,204 XAUUSD, 4,234.0 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $17.1 through it, then was back on the original side by +60.
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York high | 4,226.5 | ≈4,196 | +1 min | swept | $24.6 |
| Asia high | 4,227.0 | ≈4,197 | +1 min | swept | $24.1 |
| London high | 4,234.0 | ≈4,204 | +1 min | swept | $17.1 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 11 past PCE releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($20.7) was larger than 11 of 11 (median $4.4), and the first-hour range ($28.5) was larger than 7 of 11 (median $23.6).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,224.9 GC (≈4,194 XAUUSD), -$1.1 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (up $20.7) was fully retraced: price was back at the pre-release level at +50 min. At +60 price was on the other side of the pre-release level.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -30.40 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Release time: ALFRED release dates (backfilled page; dated releases are checked against FRED or the volume burst in our data); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: AK FlowBook recording (NinjaTrader, exchange data). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.