ISM manufacturing PMI: gold before and after
Before and after Release: Thu Oct 1, 2026, 10:00 ET (2026-10-01 14:00 UTC)
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Institute for Supply Management survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing. A reading above 50 means expansion and below 50 contraction; the prices-paid part is an early read on inflation.
The consensus figures for this release were not archived (our calendar archive starts on Oct 4, 2026), so this page compares the result with the previous value only.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | n/a | n/a |
How gold reacted to past ISM manufacturing releases
In the 9 past ISM manufacturing releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $2.5 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $4.6 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $17.5, the largest $45.5. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 7 of 9 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri May 1, 2026 | +$9.1 | +$6.1 | $37.2 |
| Wed Apr 1, 2026 | +$6.4 | +$23.0 | $45.5 |
| Mon Nov 3, 2025 | +$4.7 | -$14.8 | $28.7 |
| Tue Sep 2, 2025 | +$2.5 | +$22.7 | $30.0 |
| Fri Aug 1, 2025 | +$2.5 | +$3.9 | $14.0 |
| Tue Jul 1, 2025 | +$0.7 | -$6.0 | $11.3 |
Where price sat before the release
At Thu Oct 1, 2026, 09:45 ET, gold futures traded at 4,192.6 GC (≈4,163 XAUUSD), inside the previous day's value area (≈4,151 to ≈4,191 XAUUSD, 4,179.7 to 4,219.8 GC), below the daily VWAP (≈4,165 XAUUSD, 4,194.0 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈4,163 XAUUSD, 4,192.5 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Developing monthly VAH | 4,206.2 | ≈4,177 | +$13.6 |
| Above | Asia high | 4,198.2 | ≈4,169 | +$5.6 |
| Above | Daily VWAP + Monthly VWAP | 4,194.0 | ≈4,165 | +$1.4 |
| Below | Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC | 4,190.1 | ≈4,161 | -$2.5 |
| Below | Prev day POC + Developing weekly POC + New York low | 4,189.0 | ≈4,160 | -$3.6 |
| Below | Prev day VAL | 4,179.7 | ≈4,151 | -$12.9 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Daily VWAP + Monthly VWAP at 4,194.0 GC (≈4,165 XAUUSD), $1.4 away; below, Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC at 4,190.1 GC (≈4,161 XAUUSD), $2.5 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past ISM manufacturing releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $8.8.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -29.19 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | n/a | see release | n/a | n/a |
ISM Manufacturing PMI: actual not in our free data sources; see the release.
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,195.1 GC (≈4,166 XAUUSD) just before 10:00 ET. After 1 min -$5.6; after 5 min -$11.2; after 15 min -$11.5; after 30 min -$3.0; after 60 min -$2.6. The first-hour range was $24.0: high 4,204.8 GC (≈4,175 XAUUSD) at +40 min, low 4,180.8 GC (≈4,151 XAUUSD) at +15 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (09:59 close) | 4,195.1 | ≈4,166 | |
| +1 min | 4,189.5 | ≈4,160 | -$5.6 |
| +5 min | 4,183.9 | ≈4,154 | -$11.2 |
| +15 min | 4,183.6 | ≈4,154 | -$11.5 |
| +30 min | 4,192.1 | ≈4,162 | -$3.0 |
| +60 min | 4,192.5 | ≈4,163 | -$2.6 |
| First-hour high (+40 min) | 4,204.8 | ≈4,175 | +$9.7 |
| First-hour low (+15 min) | 4,180.8 | ≈4,151 | -$14.3 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 595 contracts, 4.3 times the median minute of the half hour before (139). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): +41 over 1 min, -126 over 5 min, -254 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (AK FlowBook recording (NinjaTrader, exchange data)): no single aggressive order of 60+ lots. No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: Prev day POC + Developing weekly POC + New York low (≈4,159 XAUUSD, 4,189.0 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $8.2 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC (≈4,161 XAUUSD, 4,190.4 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $9.6 through it, then was back on the original side by +60; Weekly VWAP (≈4,163 XAUUSD, 4,192.5 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $11.7 through it and was still beyond it at +60; Daily VWAP + Monthly VWAP (≈4,164 XAUUSD, 4,193.9 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $13.1 through it and was still beyond it at +60. 1 more levels were reached (table).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev day POC + Developing weekly POC + New York low | 4,189.0 | ≈4,159 | +1 min | swept | $8.2 |
| Developing daily POC + Developing monthly POC | 4,190.4 | ≈4,161 | +1 min | swept | $9.6 |
| Weekly VWAP | 4,192.5 | ≈4,163 | +1 min | broken | $11.7 |
| Daily VWAP + Monthly VWAP | 4,193.9 | ≈4,164 | +1 min | broken | $13.1 |
| Asia high | 4,198.2 | ≈4,169 | +33 min | swept | $6.6 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 9 past ISM manufacturing releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($11.2) was larger than 9 of 9 (median $2.5), and the first-hour range ($24.0) was larger than 5 of 9 (median $17.5).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,192.5 GC (≈4,163 XAUUSD), -$2.6 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (down $11.2) was fully retraced: price was back at the pre-release level at +28 min. At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -29.60 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Release time: date rule (backfilled page; dated releases are checked against FRED or the volume burst in our data); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: AK FlowBook recording (NinjaTrader, exchange data). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.