US jobs report (Non-Farm Payrolls): gold before and after
Before and after Release: Fri Oct 2, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-10-02 12:30 UTC)
Also in this release: Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: payrolls added, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Gold is priced in dollars and pays no interest, so data that shifts the outlook for Fed rates and the dollar moves it quickly, and this is one of the busiest minutes of the month for gold.
The consensus figures for this release were not archived (our calendar archive starts on Oct 4, 2026), so this page compares the result with the previous value only.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Employment Change | n/a | 162K |
| Unemployment Rate | n/a | 4.1% |
| Average Hourly Earnings m/m | n/a | 0.3% |
How gold reacted to past NFP releases
In the 15 past NFP releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $14.5 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $19.3 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $38.7, the largest $77.5. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 15 of 15 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Aug 7, 2026 | +$49.0 | +$46.0 | $61.5 |
| Thu Jul 2, 2026 | +$61.6 | +$47.4 | $77.5 |
| Fri Jun 5, 2026 | -$11.8 | -$59.9 | $68.3 |
| Fri May 8, 2026 | +$12.8 | +$16.6 | $32.0 |
| Fri Mar 6, 2026 | +$40.6 | +$19.5 | $58.0 |
| Wed Feb 11, 2026 | -$35.7 | -$14.9 | $70.8 |
Where price sat before the release
At Fri Oct 2, 2026, 08:15 ET, gold futures traded at 4,207.5 GC (≈4,178 XAUUSD), inside the previous day's value area (≈4,159 to ≈4,180 XAUUSD, 4,189.2 to 4,209.5 GC), above the daily VWAP (≈4,175 XAUUSD, 4,205.0 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈4,164 XAUUSD, 4,194.2 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Developing daily POC | 4,212.6 | ≈4,183 | +$5.1 |
| Above | New York high | 4,212.0 | ≈4,182 | +$4.5 |
| Above | Prev day VAH | 4,209.5 | ≈4,180 | +$2.0 |
| Below | Prev day POC | 4,207.0 | ≈4,177 | -$0.5 |
| Below | Developing monthly POC | 4,206.6 | ≈4,177 | -$0.9 |
| Below | Daily VWAP | 4,205.0 | ≈4,175 | -$2.5 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Prev day VAH at 4,209.5 GC (≈4,180 XAUUSD), $2.0 away; below, Prev day POC at 4,207.0 GC (≈4,177 XAUUSD), $0.5 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past NFP releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $19.8.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -29.99 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Employment Change | n/a | 29K | n/a | 162K |
| Unemployment Rate | n/a | 4.2% | n/a | 4.1% |
| Average Hourly Earnings m/m | n/a | 0.1% | n/a | 0.3% |
Non-Farm Employment Change: 29K, previous 162K (revised to 133K in this release).
Unemployment Rate: 4.2%, previous 4.1%.
Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.1%, previous 0.3%.
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,216.1 GC (≈4,186 XAUUSD) just before 08:30 ET. After 1 min +$28.1; after 5 min +$36.6; after 15 min +$25.2; after 30 min +$32.1; after 60 min +$7.0. The first-hour range was $45.8: high 4,259.0 GC (≈4,229 XAUUSD) at +1 min, low 4,213.2 GC (≈4,183 XAUUSD) at +54 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (08:29 close) | 4,216.1 | ≈4,186 | |
| +1 min | 4,244.2 | ≈4,214 | +$28.1 |
| +5 min | 4,252.7 | ≈4,223 | +$36.6 |
| +15 min | 4,241.3 | ≈4,211 | +$25.2 |
| +30 min | 4,248.2 | ≈4,218 | +$32.1 |
| +60 min | 4,223.1 | ≈4,193 | +$7.0 |
| First-hour high (+1 min) | 4,259.0 | ≈4,229 | +$42.9 |
| First-hour low (+54 min) | 4,213.2 | ≈4,183 | -$2.9 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 3,640 contracts, 44.7 times the median minute of the half hour before (82). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): +406 over 1 min, +431 over 5 min, +622 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (AK FlowBook recording (NinjaTrader, exchange data)): 5 aggressive orders of 60+ lots, 552 lots on the buying side and 60 on the selling side. Largest: a 292-lot aggressive buyer at 08:30:01 ET from 4,218.0 to 4,244.0 GC (≈4,188 to ≈4,214 XAUUSD). No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
| Time ET | Order | Lots | GC | XAUUSD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30:01 | Aggressive buyer | 292 | 4,218.0 | ≈4,188 |
| 08:43:15 | Aggressive buyer | 100 | 4,239.1 | ≈4,209 |
| 08:30:29 | Aggressive buyer | 84 | 4,241.7 | ≈4,212 |
| 08:35:46 | Aggressive buyer | 76 | 4,254.8 | ≈4,225 |
| 08:40:26 | Aggressive seller | 60 | 4,246.0 | ≈4,216 |
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: New York high (≈4,186 XAUUSD, 4,216.3 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $42.7 through it and was still beyond it at +60; Developing weekly VAH (≈4,187 XAUUSD, 4,216.7 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $42.3 through it and was still beyond it at +60; Prev day high + Developing monthly VAH (≈4,188 XAUUSD, 4,217.8 GC) broken at +1 min: price went $41.2 through it and was still beyond it at +60; Asia high + London high (≈4,197 XAUUSD, 4,226.8 GC) swept at +1 min: price went $32.2 through it, then was back on the original side by +60.
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York high | 4,216.3 | ≈4,186 | +1 min | broken | $42.7 |
| Developing weekly VAH | 4,216.7 | ≈4,187 | +1 min | broken | $42.3 |
| Prev day high + Developing monthly VAH | 4,217.8 | ≈4,188 | +1 min | broken | $41.2 |
| Asia high + London high | 4,226.8 | ≈4,197 | +1 min | swept | $32.2 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 15 past NFP releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($36.6) was larger than 12 of 15 (median $14.5), and the first-hour range ($45.8) was larger than 9 of 15 (median $38.7).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,223.1 GC (≈4,193 XAUUSD), +$7.0 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (up $36.6) was fully retraced: price was back at the pre-release level at +53 min. At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -29.82 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Release time: ALFRED release dates (backfilled page; dated releases are checked against FRED or the volume burst in our data); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: AK FlowBook recording (NinjaTrader, exchange data). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.