ISM services PMI: gold before and after
Before and after Release: Mon Oct 5, 2026, 10:00 ET (2026-10-05 14:00 UTC)
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Institute for Supply Management survey of purchasing managers in the services sector, the largest part of the US economy. A reading above 50 means expansion and below 50 contraction.
Calendar consensus before the release. ISM Services PMI: consensus 55.1, previous 55.4.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| ISM Services PMI | 55.1 | 55.4 |
How gold reacted to past ISM services releases
In the 9 past ISM services releases in our data since May 2025, gold futures moved a median of $2.9 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $5.1 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $19.3, the largest $34.6. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 4 of 9 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3, 2026 | -$5.1 | +$14.8 | $29.0 |
| Fri Jul 3, 2026 | +$2.0 | +$5.7 | $15.8 |
| Tue May 5, 2026 | -$0.6 | +$3.5 | $21.1 |
| Wed Nov 5, 2025 | -$3.0 | +$4.9 | $21.6 |
| Thu Sep 4, 2025 | -$11.4 | $0.0 | $14.3 |
| Tue Aug 5, 2025 | +$2.9 | +$11.5 | $15.9 |
Where price sat before the release
At Mon Oct 5, 2026, 09:45 ET, gold futures traded at 4,165.9 GC (≈4,138 XAUUSD), below the previous day's value area (≈4,141 to ≈4,199 XAUUSD, 4,168.4 to 4,226.5 GC), below the daily VWAP (≈4,155 XAUUSD, 4,183.2 GC) and below the weekly VWAP (≈4,155 XAUUSD, 4,183.2 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Developing monthly VAL + London low | 4,177.9 | ≈4,150 | +$12.0 |
| Above | Prev week VAL | 4,168.7 | ≈4,141 | +$2.8 |
| Above | Prev day VAL | 4,168.4 | ≈4,141 | +$2.5 |
| Below | New York low | 4,165.0 | ≈4,137 | -$0.9 |
| Below | Asia low | 4,157.6 | ≈4,130 | -$8.3 |
| Below | Prev day low | 4,153.8 | ≈4,126 | -$12.1 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Prev day VAL at 4,168.4 GC (≈4,141 XAUUSD), $2.5 away; below, New York low at 4,165.0 GC (≈4,137 XAUUSD), $0.9 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past ISM services releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $6.6.
This BEFORE section was rebuilt after the fact from the data available 15 minutes before the release (backfilled page). XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -27.80 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Services PMI | 55.1 | see release | n/a | 55.4 |
ISM Services PMI: actual not in our free data sources; see the release.
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 4,163.4 GC (≈4,136 XAUUSD) just before 10:00 ET. After 1 min +$3.3; after 5 min +$3.5; after 15 min +$6.9; after 30 min +$1.8; after 60 min +$11.6. The first-hour range was $16.6: high 4,176.6 GC (≈4,149 XAUUSD) at +60 min, low 4,160.0 GC (≈4,132 XAUUSD) at +35 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (09:59 close) | 4,163.4 | ≈4,136 | |
| +1 min | 4,166.7 | ≈4,139 | +$3.3 |
| +5 min | 4,166.9 | ≈4,139 | +$3.5 |
| +15 min | 4,170.3 | ≈4,142 | +$6.9 |
| +30 min | 4,165.2 | ≈4,137 | +$1.8 |
| +60 min | 4,175.0 | ≈4,147 | +$11.6 |
| First-hour high (+60 min) | 4,176.6 | ≈4,149 | +$13.2 |
| First-hour low (+35 min) | 4,160.0 | ≈4,132 | -$3.4 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 748 contracts, 4.1 times the median minute of the half hour before (180). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): +78 over 1 min, -76 over 5 min, -33 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (Bookmap MBO (exchange order-by-order data)): no single aggressive order of 60+ lots. No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
Levels: held, swept or broken
Levels known before the release, in the order price reached them: Prev day VAL (≈4,141 XAUUSD, 4,168.4 GC) broken at +2 min: price went $8.2 through it and was still beyond it at +60; Prev week VAL (≈4,141 XAUUSD, 4,168.7 GC) broken at +2 min: price went $7.9 through it and was still beyond it at +60.
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Reached | Result | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev day VAL | 4,168.4 | ≈4,141 | +2 min | broken | $8.2 |
| Prev week VAL | 4,168.7 | ≈4,141 | +2 min | broken | $7.9 |
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 9 past ISM services releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($3.5) was larger than 6 of 9 (median $2.9), and the first-hour range ($16.6) was larger than 4 of 9 (median $19.3).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 4,175.0 GC (≈4,147 XAUUSD), +$11.6 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (up $3.5) was fully retraced: price was back at the pre-release level at +31 min. At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -27.80 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (faireconomy.media); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: Bookmap MBO (exchange order-by-order data). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.