FOMC meeting minutes: gold before and after
Upcoming Release: Wed Oct 7, 2026, 14:00 ET (2026-10-07 18:00 UTC) ·
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The minutes are the detailed record of the last Fed meeting, published three weeks after it. They can shift rate pricing when they show how many officials leaned toward lower or higher rates. Gold reactions are usually smaller than on decision days, but they can be fast.
There is no number to forecast for this event: what matters is the content and the tone.
How gold reacted to past FOMC minutes releases
In the 6 past FOMC minutes releases in our data since Jul 2025, gold futures moved a median of $3.8 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $7.8 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $22.1, the largest $41.7. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 4 of 5 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Aug 19, 2026 | +$8.8 | +$8.3 | $25.6 |
| Wed Jul 8, 2026 | +$3.2 | +$17.7 | $27.8 |
| Wed May 20, 2026 | +$0.8 | +$10.5 | $16.2 |
| Wed Apr 8, 2026 | +$6.0 | -$29.4 | $41.7 |
| Wed Nov 19, 2025 | -$4.3 | -$14.1 | $18.7 |
| Wed Jul 9, 2025 | -$0.3 | +$1.5 | $6.2 |
Where price sat before the release
At Wed Oct 7, 2026, 12:52 ET, gold futures traded at 4,134.2 GC (≈4,109 XAUUSD), below the previous day's value area (≈4,143 to ≈4,182 XAUUSD, 4,168.6 to 4,207.4 GC), below the daily VWAP (≈4,112 XAUUSD, 4,137.9 GC) and below the weekly VWAP (≈4,138 XAUUSD, 4,163.3 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Developing daily POC | 4,145.9 | ≈4,120 | +$11.7 |
| Above | Daily VWAP | 4,137.9 | ≈4,112 | +$3.7 |
| Above | London low | 4,135.0 | ≈4,109 | +$0.8 |
| Below | Prev day low | 4,130.7 | ≈4,105 | -$3.5 |
| Below | New York low | 4,091.2 | ≈4,066 | -$43.0 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, London low at 4,135.0 GC (≈4,109 XAUUSD), $0.8 away; below, Prev day low at 4,130.7 GC (≈4,105 XAUUSD), $3.5 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past FOMC minutes releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $5.6.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -25.62 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
The after-analysis appears here about 70 minutes after the release: actual vs consensus, the measured move minute by minute, volume, big orders and which levels held.
Sources: Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (faireconomy.media); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow. Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.