US weekly jobless claims: gold before and after
Upcoming Release: Thu Oct 8, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-10-08 12:30 UTC) ·
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
Initial jobless claims count new applications for unemployment benefits in the past week, the most frequent read on the US labor market. Gold reacts most when the number is far from the consensus or when it comes out together with other data.
Calendar consensus before the release. Unemployment Claims: consensus 200K, previous 197K.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Claims | 200K | 197K |
How gold reacted to past Jobless claims releases
In the 40 past jobless claims releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $5.4 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $9.6 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $22.8, the largest $77.5. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 23 of 36 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 1, 2026 | +$3.9 | -$12.4 | $20.7 |
| Thu Sep 24, 2026 | -$5.1 | +$4.8 | $20.6 |
| Thu Sep 10, 2026 | -$22.3 | -$6.7 | $50.0 |
| Thu Aug 13, 2026 | +$0.6 | -$6.1 | $22.9 |
| Thu Aug 6, 2026 | +$5.7 | -$14.9 | $41.7 |
| Thu Jul 30, 2026 | -$3.6 | +$3.2 | $22.2 |
Where price sat before the release
At Wed Oct 7, 2026, 12:52 ET, gold futures traded at 4,134.2 GC (≈4,109 XAUUSD), below the previous day's value area (≈4,143 to ≈4,182 XAUUSD, 4,168.6 to 4,207.4 GC), below the daily VWAP (≈4,112 XAUUSD, 4,137.9 GC) and below the weekly VWAP (≈4,138 XAUUSD, 4,163.3 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Developing daily POC | 4,145.9 | ≈4,120 | +$11.7 |
| Above | Daily VWAP | 4,137.9 | ≈4,112 | +$3.7 |
| Above | London low | 4,135.0 | ≈4,109 | +$0.8 |
| Below | Prev day low | 4,130.7 | ≈4,105 | -$3.5 |
| Below | New York low | 4,091.2 | ≈4,066 | -$43.0 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, London low at 4,135.0 GC (≈4,109 XAUUSD), $0.8 away; below, Prev day low at 4,130.7 GC (≈4,105 XAUUSD), $3.5 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past jobless claims releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $7.2.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -25.62 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
The after-analysis appears here about 70 minutes after the release: actual vs consensus, the measured move minute by minute, volume, big orders and which levels held.
Sources: Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (faireconomy.media); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow. Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.