US inflation (CPI): gold before and after
Upcoming Release: Wed Oct 14, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-10-14 12:30 UTC) ·
Also in this release: CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Core CPI y/y.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Consumer Price Index measures the inflation paid by US consumers; core CPI leaves out food and energy. Inflation data feeds straight into what markets price for the Fed's next rate decisions, and through Treasury yields and the dollar it reaches gold.
Calendar consensus before the release. Core CPI m/m: consensus 0.2%, previous 0.3%; CPI m/m: consensus 0.6%, previous 0.4%; CPI y/y: consensus 3.6%, previous 3.4%.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| CPI m/m | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| CPI y/y | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Core CPI y/y | 2.5% | 2.4% |
How gold reacted to past CPI releases
In the 16 past CPI releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $12.7 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $9.9 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $30.6, the largest $76.5. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 13 of 15 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Aug 12, 2026 | -$3.0 | -$9.5 | $62.7 |
| Tue Jul 14, 2026 | +$68.2 | +$53.1 | $76.5 |
| Wed Jun 10, 2026 | +$21.3 | +$7.7 | $42.4 |
| Tue May 12, 2026 | -$4.2 | -$6.3 | $32.8 |
| Fri Apr 10, 2026 | +$18.8 | +$14.2 | $22.0 |
| Wed Mar 11, 2026 | -$11.0 | -$10.4 | $38.4 |
Where price sat before the release
At Fri Oct 9, 2026, 16:59 ET, gold futures traded at 4,219.7 GC (≈4,195 XAUUSD), above the previous day's value area (≈4,117 to ≈4,134 XAUUSD, 4,142.3 to 4,159.4 GC), above the daily VWAP (≈4,184 XAUUSD, 4,208.6 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈4,143 XAUUSD, 4,168.4 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | London high | 4,226.4 | ≈4,201 | +$6.7 |
| Above | Developing monthly VAH | 4,223.2 | ≈4,198 | +$3.5 |
| Above | Developing daily POC | 4,220.5 | ≈4,196 | +$0.8 |
| Below | Prev week VAH | 4,217.0 | ≈4,192 | -$2.7 |
| Below | Daily VWAP | 4,208.6 | ≈4,184 | -$11.1 |
| Below | London low | 4,199.2 | ≈4,174 | -$20.5 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Developing daily POC at 4,220.5 GC (≈4,196 XAUUSD), $0.8 away; below, Prev week VAH at 4,217.0 GC (≈4,192 XAUUSD), $2.7 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past CPI releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $15.9.
Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -25.00 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
The after-analysis appears here about 70 minutes after the release: actual vs consensus, the measured move minute by minute, volume, big orders and which levels held.
Sources: Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (faireconomy.media); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow. Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.