US producer prices (PPI) with retail sales, jobless claims: gold before and after
Upcoming Release: Thu Oct 15, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-10-15 12:30 UTC) ·
Also in this release: PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Producer Price Index measures prices received by US producers, an early read on inflation in the pipeline. It reaches gold mostly through rate pricing and often comes out a day before or after CPI.
Calendar consensus before the release. Core PPI m/m: consensus 0.3%, previous 0.2%; PPI m/m: consensus 0.5%, previous 0.4%; Retail Sales m/m: consensus 0.3%, previous 1.2%.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core PPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| PPI m/m | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Retail Sales m/m | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Unemployment Claims | 195K | 197K |
How gold reacted to past PPI releases
In the 14 past PPI releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $3.5 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $5.8 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $19.4, the largest $50.0. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 6 of 13 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 10, 2026 | -$22.3 | -$6.7 | $50.0 |
| Thu Aug 13, 2026 | +$0.6 | -$6.1 | $22.9 |
| Wed Jul 15, 2026 | +$15.4 | +$16.8 | $35.6 |
| Thu Jun 11, 2026 | -$6.7 | +$6.9 | $28.9 |
| Wed May 13, 2026 | -$5.3 | +$0.9 | $20.0 |
| Tue Apr 14, 2026 | +$6.7 | +$14.9 | $31.6 |
Where price sat before the release
At Fri Oct 9, 2026, 16:59 ET, gold futures traded at 4,219.7 GC (≈4,195 XAUUSD), above the previous day's value area (≈4,117 to ≈4,134 XAUUSD, 4,142.3 to 4,159.4 GC), above the daily VWAP (≈4,184 XAUUSD, 4,208.6 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈4,143 XAUUSD, 4,168.4 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | London high | 4,226.4 | ≈4,201 | +$6.7 |
| Above | Developing monthly VAH | 4,223.2 | ≈4,198 | +$3.5 |
| Above | Developing daily POC | 4,220.5 | ≈4,196 | +$0.8 |
| Below | Prev week VAH | 4,217.0 | ≈4,192 | -$2.7 |
| Below | Daily VWAP | 4,208.6 | ≈4,184 | -$11.1 |
| Below | London low | 4,199.2 | ≈4,174 | -$20.5 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Developing daily POC at 4,220.5 GC (≈4,196 XAUUSD), $0.8 away; below, Prev week VAH at 4,217.0 GC (≈4,192 XAUUSD), $2.7 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past PPI releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $9.1.
Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -25.00 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
The after-analysis appears here about 70 minutes after the release: actual vs consensus, the measured move minute by minute, volume, big orders and which levels held.
Sources: Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (faireconomy.media); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow. Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.