Fed rate decision (FOMC), Wed Oct 28, 2026: gold before and after
Upcoming Release: Wed Oct 28, 2026, 14:00 ET (2026-10-28 18:00 UTC) ·
Also in this release: FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Federal Open Market Committee sets the federal funds rate eight times a year. The statement comes out at 14:00 ET and the Fed Chair's press conference starts at 14:30 ET. Interest rates are the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, so the decision, the wording and the press conference can each move gold within seconds.
Calendar consensus before the release. Federal Funds Rate: consensus 4.00%, previous 4.00%.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate | 4.00% | 4.00% |
How gold reacted to past FOMC decision releases
In the 11 past FOMC decision releases in our data since May 2025, gold futures moved a median of $4.9 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $5.1 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $48.3, the largest $111.3. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 7 of 11 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Jul 29, 2026 | +$25.0 | +$64.3 | $67.7 |
| Wed Jun 17, 2026 | -$64.5 | -$95.9 | $111.3 |
| Wed Apr 29, 2026 | -$6.7 | -$9.1 | $35.0 |
| Wed Mar 18, 2026 | -$1.4 | -$37.8 | $48.3 |
| Wed Jan 28, 2026 | -$7.1 | +$41.3 | $63.1 |
| Wed Dec 10, 2025 | +$12.7 | +$23.8 | $41.2 |
Where price sat before the release
At Fri Oct 23, 2026, 16:59 ET, gold futures traded at 4,009.4 GC (≈3,996 XAUUSD), below the previous day's value area (≈4,047 to ≈4,102 XAUUSD, 4,060.4 to 4,115.6 GC), below the daily VWAP (≈4,011 XAUUSD, 4,024.7 GC) and below the weekly VWAP (≈4,115 XAUUSD, 4,128.4 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Daily VWAP | 4,024.7 | ≈4,011 | +$15.3 |
| Above | New York high | 4,016.0 | ≈4,002 | +$6.6 |
| Above | Developing daily POC | 4,012.8 | ≈3,999 | +$3.4 |
| Below | New York low | 4,006.0 | ≈3,992 | -$3.4 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Developing daily POC at 4,012.8 GC (≈3,999 XAUUSD), $3.4 away; below, New York low at 4,006.0 GC (≈3,992 XAUUSD), $3.4 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past FOMC decision releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $11.9.
Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -13.58 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
The after-analysis appears here about 70 minutes after the release: actual vs consensus, the measured move minute by minute, volume, big orders and which levels held.
Sources: Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (faireconomy.media); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow. Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.