PCE inflation (personal income and outlays) with GDP, jobless claims, Thu Oct 29, 2026: gold before and after
Upcoming Release: Thu Oct 29, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-10-29 12:30 UTC) ·
Also in this release: Advance GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The PCE price index is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with personal income and spending. Core PCE is the number Fed officials quote most, so a gap between the result and the consensus feeds into rate pricing, yields and the dollar.
Calendar consensus before the release. Core PCE Price Index m/m: consensus 0.3%, previous 0.2%; Advance GDP q/q: consensus 3.2%, previous 1.5%; Unemployment Claims: consensus 198K, previous 194K.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Advance GDP q/q | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Unemployment Claims | 198K | 194K |
How gold reacted to past PCE releases
In the 12 past PCE releases in our data since Jun 2025, gold futures moved a median of $4.5 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $9.5 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $24.6, the largest $56.6. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 7 of 12 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Sep 30, 2026 | +$20.7 | -$1.1 | $28.5 |
| Wed Aug 26, 2026 | -$7.8 | -$20.1 | $36.7 |
| Thu Jul 30, 2026 | -$3.6 | +$3.2 | $22.2 |
| Thu Jun 25, 2026 | +$11.2 | +$38.3 | $51.6 |
| Thu May 28, 2026 | +$7.6 | +$43.8 | $56.6 |
| Thu Apr 30, 2026 | -$3.5 | +$2.2 | $23.6 |
Where price sat before the release
At Fri Oct 23, 2026, 16:59 ET, gold futures traded at 4,009.4 GC (≈3,996 XAUUSD), below the previous day's value area (≈4,047 to ≈4,102 XAUUSD, 4,060.4 to 4,115.6 GC), below the daily VWAP (≈4,011 XAUUSD, 4,024.7 GC) and below the weekly VWAP (≈4,115 XAUUSD, 4,128.4 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Daily VWAP | 4,024.7 | ≈4,011 | +$15.3 |
| Above | New York high | 4,016.0 | ≈4,002 | +$6.6 |
| Above | Developing daily POC | 4,012.8 | ≈3,999 | +$3.4 |
| Below | New York low | 4,006.0 | ≈3,992 | -$3.4 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Developing daily POC at 4,012.8 GC (≈3,999 XAUUSD), $3.4 away; below, New York low at 4,006.0 GC (≈3,992 XAUUSD), $3.4 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past PCE releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $8.9.
Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -13.58 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
The after-analysis appears here about 70 minutes after the release: actual vs consensus, the measured move minute by minute, volume, big orders and which levels held.
Sources: Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (faireconomy.media); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow. Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.