ISM manufacturing PMI, Mon Nov 2, 2026: gold before and after
Before and after Release: Mon Nov 2, 2026, 10:00 ET (2026-11-02 15:00 UTC)
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The Institute for Supply Management survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing. A reading above 50 means expansion and below 50 contraction; the prices-paid part is an early read on inflation.
Calendar consensus before the release. ISM Manufacturing PMI: consensus 54.5, previous 54.5.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.5 |
How gold reacted to past ISM manufacturing releases
In the 10 past ISM manufacturing releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $3.2 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $4.3 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $20.8, the largest $45.5. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 8 of 10 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 1, 2026 | -$11.2 | -$2.6 | $24.0 |
| Fri May 1, 2026 | +$9.1 | +$6.1 | $37.2 |
| Wed Apr 1, 2026 | +$6.4 | +$23.0 | $45.5 |
| Mon Nov 3, 2025 | +$4.7 | -$14.8 | $28.7 |
| Tue Sep 2, 2025 | +$2.5 | +$22.7 | $30.0 |
| Fri Aug 1, 2025 | +$2.5 | +$3.9 | $14.0 |
Where price sat before the release
At Mon Nov 2, 2026, 09:40 ET, gold futures traded at 3,973.8 GC (≈3,963 XAUUSD), inside the previous day's value area (≈3,869 to ≈3,981 XAUUSD, 3,879.5 to 3,991.4 GC), above the daily VWAP (≈3,923 XAUUSD, 3,933.8 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈3,923 XAUUSD, 3,933.8 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | Prev week VAL | 3,997.4 | ≈3,987 | +$23.6 |
| Above | Prev day VAH | 3,991.4 | ≈3,981 | +$17.6 |
| Above | New York high | 3,976.0 | ≈3,965 | +$2.2 |
| Below | Developing weekly VAH + Developing monthly VAH | 3,952.7 | ≈3,942 | -$21.1 |
| Below | Daily VWAP + Weekly VWAP + Monthly VWAP | 3,933.8 | ≈3,923 | -$40.0 |
| Below | London high | 3,916.4 | ≈3,906 | -$57.4 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, New York high at 3,976.0 GC (≈3,965 XAUUSD), $2.2 away; below, Developing weekly VAH + Developing monthly VAH at 3,952.7 GC (≈3,942 XAUUSD), $21.1 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past ISM manufacturing releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $8.4.
Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -10.64 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
| Line | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | see release | n/a | 54.5 |
ISM Manufacturing PMI: actual not in our free data sources; see the release.
Gold futures (GC) 1-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 60 minutes after the release; dashed lines are levels known before the release. Right axis: XAUUSD equivalent.
The measured reaction
Gold futures were at 3,974.8 GC (≈3,965 XAUUSD) just before 10:00 ET. After 1 min -$4.0; after 5 min -$7.1; after 15 min -$8.5; after 30 min -$10.0; after 60 min -$6.8. The first-hour range was $15.7: high 3,976.3 GC (≈3,966 XAUUSD) at +1 min, low 3,960.6 GC (≈3,951 XAUUSD) at +36 min.
| Time | GC | XAUUSD | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before (09:59 close) | 3,974.8 | ≈3,965 | |
| +1 min | 3,970.8 | ≈3,961 | -$4.0 |
| +5 min | 3,967.7 | ≈3,958 | -$7.1 |
| +15 min | 3,966.3 | ≈3,956 | -$8.5 |
| +30 min | 3,964.8 | ≈3,955 | -$10.0 |
| +60 min | 3,968.0 | ≈3,958 | -$6.8 |
| First-hour high (+1 min) | 3,976.3 | ≈3,966 | +$1.5 |
| First-hour low (+36 min) | 3,960.6 | ≈3,951 | -$14.2 |
Volume and order flow
The release minute traded 763 contracts, 2.4 times the median minute of the half hour before (316). Net delta (aggressive buying minus aggressive selling): -83 over 1 min, -104 over 5 min, -19 over 15 min.
Order flow in the first 15 minutes (AK FlowBook recording (NinjaTrader, exchange data)): 1 aggressive order of 60+ lots, 65 lots on the buying side and 0 on the selling side. Largest: a 65-lot aggressive buyer at 10:02:19 ET at 3,970.2 GC (≈3,960 XAUUSD). No iceberg (hidden order) of 30+ lots was recorded in this window.
| Time ET | Order | Lots | GC | XAUUSD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:02:19 | Aggressive buyer | 65 | 3,970.2 | ≈3,960 |
Levels: held, swept or broken
No reference level known before the release was reached in the first hour.
Compared with past releases
Compared with the 10 past ISM manufacturing releases in our data: the 5-minute move ($7.1) was larger than 8 of 10 (median $3.2), and the first-hour range ($15.7) was larger than 4 of 10 (median $20.8).
By +60 minutes
At +60 minutes gold futures were at 3,968.0 GC (≈3,958 XAUUSD), -$6.8 from the pre-release price. The first 5-minute move (down $7.1) was more than half retraced (65% given back at most). At +60 price was still on the same side of the pre-release level.
XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -9.97 at the release (MT5 XAUUSD tick + NinjaTrader GC bar); dollar moves are the same for both.
Sources: Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (faireconomy.media); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow; Big orders and icebergs: AK FlowBook recording (NinjaTrader, exchange data). Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.