US jobs report (Non-Farm Payrolls), Fri Nov 6, 2026: gold before and after
Upcoming Release: Fri Nov 6, 2026, 08:30 ET (2026-11-06 13:30 UTC) ·
Also in this release: Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m.
Before the release
What it is and why gold cares
The monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: payrolls added, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Gold is priced in dollars and pays no interest, so data that shifts the outlook for Fed rates and the dollar moves it quickly, and this is one of the busiest minutes of the month for gold.
Calendar consensus before the release. Non-Farm Employment Change: consensus 63K, previous 29K; Unemployment Rate: consensus 4.2%, previous 4.2%; Average Hourly Earnings m/m: consensus 0.3%, previous 0.1%.
| Line | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Employment Change | 63K | 29K |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.3% | 0.1% |
How gold reacted to past NFP releases
In the 16 past NFP releases in our data since Apr 2025, gold futures moved a median of $18.2 (up or down) in the first 5 minutes and $22.2 after 30 minutes. The median high-to-low range in the first hour was $39.0, the largest $77.5. The direction of the first 5 minutes was still in place after 60 minutes in 16 of 16 cases. This describes past releases only, measured on our own 1-minute futures data.
| Release | 5-min move | 60-min move | 60-min range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 2, 2026 | +$36.6 | +$7.0 | $45.8 |
| Fri Aug 7, 2026 | +$49.0 | +$46.0 | $61.5 |
| Thu Jul 2, 2026 | +$61.6 | +$47.4 | $77.5 |
| Fri Jun 5, 2026 | -$11.8 | -$59.9 | $68.3 |
| Fri May 8, 2026 | +$12.8 | +$16.6 | $32.0 |
| Fri Mar 6, 2026 | +$40.6 | +$19.5 | $58.0 |
Where price sat before the release
At Mon Nov 2, 2026, 16:20 ET, gold futures traded at 3,954.5 GC (≈3,945 XAUUSD), inside the previous day's value area (≈3,870 to ≈3,982 XAUUSD, 3,879.5 to 3,991.4 GC), above the daily VWAP (≈3,940 XAUUSD, 3,949.3 GC) and above the weekly VWAP (≈3,940 XAUUSD, 3,949.3 GC).
| Level | GC | XAUUSD | Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above | New York high | 3,980.8 | ≈3,971 | +$26.3 |
| Above | Developing weekly VAH + Developing monthly VAH | 3,980.5 | ≈3,971 | +$26.0 |
| Above | Developing daily POC + Developing weekly POC + Developing monthly POC | 3,969.4 | ≈3,960 | +$14.9 |
| Below | Daily VWAP + Weekly VWAP + Monthly VWAP | 3,949.3 | ≈3,940 | -$5.2 |
| Below | Developing weekly VAL + Developing monthly VAL | 3,942.8 | ≈3,933 | -$11.7 |
| Below | London high | 3,916.4 | ≈3,907 | -$38.1 |
Nearest reference levels from futures volume: above, Developing daily POC + Developing weekly POC + Developing monthly POC at 3,969.4 GC (≈3,960 XAUUSD), $14.9 away; below, Daily VWAP + Weekly VWAP + Monthly VWAP at 3,949.3 GC (≈3,940 XAUUSD), $5.2 away. These are levels to watch around the release, places where price reacted before; they are not forecasts.
Spreads and volatility
Around a release, spreads on XAUUSD CFDs often widen, prices can jump several dollars between two ticks and stop orders can fill far from their price. In past NFP releases the release minute alone had a median high-to-low range of $20.2.
Our futures recording missed part of this trading day before the release; developing levels use the minutes we have. XAUUSD equivalents use the GC to XAUUSD gap of -9.61 measured at that time; your broker's price can differ by a few dollars.
After the release
The after-analysis appears here about 70 minutes after the release: actual vs consensus, the measured move minute by minute, volume, big orders and which levels held.
Sources: Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (faireconomy.media); Actual values: FRED / ALFRED first prints and Federal Reserve statements; Prices, volume and delta: COMEX gold futures (GC) 1-minute data, AK Order Flow. Times are New York (ET); the release time is also shown in your time zone.
Education only. Not financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs carries a high risk of loss.