Gold Volume Profile Routine: Build Levels on GC Futures Volume and Convert Them to XAUUSD with the Basis
Lesson 9 of 9 · Advanced
Why build the profile on gold futures?
Spot gold, which brokers quote as XAUUSD, is an over-the-counter market with no single venue recording all of its trades. The "volume" on CFD platforms is normally tick volume: the number of price changes in that broker's feed. It correlates with overall market activity, but it is not a contract count, it does not show which side was the aggressor, and it differs from one broker to the next.
Gold futures (GC), by contrast, trade on COMEX, part of CME Group. Every contract is recorded, the volume is real, and you can see whether each trade was executed by a market buy or a market sell. For that reason we build the volume profile, delta and footprint on GC and then transfer the levels to XAUUSD. Micro gold futures (MGC) price almost identically, but for reading volume the full-size GC contract usually gives a more complete picture.
What is the basis, and how do you convert levels?
In this lesson, the basis is the price difference between the active futures contract and your broker's XAUUSD price at one specific moment:
Basis = GC price − XAUUSD price, and therefore XAUUSD level = GC level − basis
The basis is usually positive because the futures price includes the cost of carry until expiry (mainly the dollar interest rate minus the gold lease rate). It shrinks as expiry approaches and jumps larger on the day you roll to the next contract. Brokers' prices also differ slightly from one another. So do not treat the basis as fixed; measure it live every day: read the mid price of both instruments at a quiet moment (not in the middle of a news spike) and average several readings.
Hypothetical example with a measured basis of 21.4 dollars:
| Level | GC (futures) | XAUUSD (CFD) |
| Yesterday's VAH | 4,013.5 | 3,992.1 |
| Yesterday's POC | 4,004.0 | 3,982.6 |
| Yesterday's VAL | 3,992.5 | 3,971.1 |
| Tuesday's nPOC | 3,987.5 | 3,966.1 |
These numbers only illustrate the calculation. Treat the converted levels as zones, not exact lines; an error of a dollar or two from basis changes and broker price differences is normal.
Pre-session routine
- Confirm the active contract: the one with the most volume. Near the roll, adjust previous-contract levels by the spread between the two contracts.
- Yesterday's profile: mark the POC, VAH, VAL, high and low, the profile shape, any poor high or low and single prints.
- The bigger picture: the weekly composite value area or the current bracket, major HVNs and LVNs, and nearby nPOCs.
- Economic calendar: note the times of data releases and key speeches; levels are less reliable at those moments.
- Overnight session: where is price relative to yesterday's value? Inside value, outside value but inside the range, or outside the range? The Asian and London hours are where this is mostly decided before New York trades.
- Basis and conversion table: measure the basis and build the table of GC and XAUUSD levels.
- Scenarios: write conditions instead of predictions. For example: "If price opens inside value, I expect rotation between the edges; if it is accepted outside the VAH for two periods, the rotation scenario is invalidated." For every scenario, write down what would invalidate it.
During and after the session
During the session:
- In the first hour, record the opening type and the size of the IB relative to its average.
- Track the developing POC and the position of price relative to VWAP.
- Focus only on the edges (VAH, VAL, nPOC, major LVNs) and use order flow there to judge acceptance or rejection. The middle of value is usually not a decision area.
- If major news is released, wait until the market has rebuilt some structure.
After the session:
- Classify the day type and check which of your pre-written scenarios occurred.
- Archive the profile image and notes, and log each pattern event (acceptance, rejection, 80% rule, nPOC contact) in a table.
- Compare the end-of-day basis with the morning basis to see how much the converted levels have shifted.
After a few months, that table gives you real statistics of your own on gold, which is worth more than any general number in books or on social media.
Limits of this routine
- The basis is not constant through the day and can change noticeably around the roll and during news spikes.
- CFD brokers widen spreads at news moments, so a level touched on futures may look slightly different at your broker's price.
- The session definition, row size and value area method can move levels by several dollars; choose one setting and keep it.
- This routine is a tool for building a market map, not a signal system. Any entry and exit rules you build on top of it must be tested separately, with costs, on a demo account.
Common mistakes
- Assuming a fixed basis for days or weeks and using an old conversion table.
- Measuring the basis in the middle of a news spike, when the two markets are momentarily out of sync.
- Leaving previous-contract futures levels on the chart after a roll without adjusting them.
- Treating converted XAUUSD levels as exact lines instead of zones with a dollar or two of error.
- Not logging daily outcomes, so you never build real statistics of your own.
What does volume say here?
In this routine the profile is the map and order flow is the real-time confirmation tool:
- Delta and cumulative delta on GC show whether a move toward an edge is backed by real market-order pressure or happened only because the other side was absent.
- The footprint at the VAH, VAL and nPOCs: look for absorption (heavy aggressive volume with no progress) or stacked imbalances (one-sided pressure).
- The order book: large resting limit orders near edges can be genuine or temporary; give them weight only when they actually absorb trade, not merely because they are visible on screen.
- All of this is read on futures data; once you have a conclusion, move the level to XAUUSD using the day's basis.
📊 See real gold futures volume behind these ideas: free order flow course · today's gold volume map
Frequently asked questions
Why not build the volume profile directly on XAUUSD?
Because XAUUSD volume at CFD brokers is tick volume and shows neither contract count nor trade side. Real, reliable volume is recorded in gold futures (GC) on COMEX.
How do I calculate the gold basis?
At a quiet moment, take the mid price of the active GC contract minus the mid price of your broker's XAUUSD. To convert, subtract that number from the GC level. Re-measure it every day and after each roll.
Does this routine give buy and sell signals?
No. It builds a map of value and key levels so that decisions are more structured. Any trading rule must be tested separately on a demo account.
Education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell; we never give signals. Price examples are illustrative. Test any method on a demo account first, with strict risk management.